Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 78,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the BTC/USDT pair at Binance during the one-hour candle ending 4 May 2026 at 10PM Eastern Time. The settlement window extends to 5 May 2026 at 2AM UTC, allowing for price discovery across the final trading hour before resolution. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows the crowd pricing this outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting either a price threshold set substantially below anticipated spot levels or consensus around Bitcoin's directional bias at that specific juncture.
Historical precedent suggests markets resolving on fixed future dates with 100% probability typically indicate either a strike price positioned well below reasonable bear-case scenarios or insufficient liquidity to reflect tail-risk pricing. Bitcoin's intraday volatility has historically ranged 2–5% during single-hour candles, though this varies considerably depending on macroeconomic announcements or regulatory developments. The May 2026 timeframe falls outside any scheduled Federal Reserve decision or major institutional reporting cycle currently on the calendar, reducing near-term catalyst concentration.
Traders should monitor developments in cryptocurrency regulation, particularly any legislative action affecting spot trading venues or stablecoin frameworks that could influence Binance's operational status or BTC/USDT pair availability. Broader equity market movements and inflation data releases in the weeks preceding early May could shift Bitcoin's correlation dynamics. The specific price threshold determining this market's resolution remains the critical variable; without that figure, assessing whether the 100% probability reflects genuine consensus or mispricing against comparable volatility regimes remains difficult.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 4, 10PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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