Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 79,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 81,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 82,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 81,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 82,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against USDT on Binance's 1-hour candle ending 10 May 2026 at 4PM Eastern Time. The current 100% implied probability reflects either an exceptionally tight price range expectation or minimal liquidity depth in Polymarket's order book at present. With settlement nearly two years away, the probability reading should be interpreted cautiously; such extreme certainty in long-dated crypto markets typically indicates sparse trading activity rather than genuine consensus about future price levels.
Bitcoin's historical volatility makes multi-year price predictions inherently uncertain. Over comparable 24-month windows, BTC has experienced swings exceeding 200%, with single-day moves of 10–20% not uncommon during macroeconomic shifts or regulatory announcements. The current crowd probability offers limited information about actual expected price levels without knowing the specific threshold in the title. Traders should note that Binance's BTC/USDT pair can experience brief deviations from broader market prices during periods of exchange-specific liquidity stress, though such gaps typically resolve within hours.
Key variables affecting settlement include Federal Reserve policy trajectories, institutional adoption trends, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions—all of which remain highly uncertain over a two-year horizon. Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets has strengthened during recent market cycles, making macroeconomic conditions material to outcomes. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Binance's specific 1-hour candle close introduces minor execution risk; traders should verify current order book depth and consider whether the stated threshold aligns with reasonable price expectations given historical ranges.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 10, 4PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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