Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? | 2% YES | 99% NO |
Argentina's government would need to formally adopt the US dollar as legal tender or establish a currency peg to USD before 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The resolution criteria require actual implementation rather than mere announcement; a policy declaration alone would not suffice. The market currently prices this outcome at 2% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting substantial scepticism among traders that such a monetary regime shift would occur within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests dollarization faces significant political and institutional barriers in Argentina. Ecuador dollarized in 2000 following severe financial crisis, whilst El Salvador adopted the dollar in 2001 under different circumstances. Argentina itself operated a currency board pegging the peso 1:1 to USD from 1991 to 2001, which ultimately collapsed amid economic crisis. The current 2% probability reflects trader assessment that whilst dollarization has been discussed by some Argentine policymakers as a potential inflation-control mechanism, the political economy of abandoning monetary sovereignty remains prohibitively difficult within an 18-month timeframe.
Traders monitoring this market should track statements from Argentina's central bank and finance ministry regarding monetary policy frameworks, particularly any formal legislative proposals for dollarization. The Central Bank's inflation data and peso exchange rate stability will signal whether policymakers perceive dollarization as necessary. Any major economic deterioration or currency crisis could shift incentives, though even such scenarios historically require extended political negotiation before implementation. The current order book reflects minimal conviction that these conditions will crystallise and translate into actual dollarization by mid-2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for argentina contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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