Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 39.0–39.4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40.0–40.4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 41.0+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| <39.0 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 39.5–39.9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40.5–40.9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns Donald Trump's approval rating as measured by Nate Silver's aggregated polling on 8 May 2026. Silver Bulletin synthesises multiple polling sources into a single trend line, with approval ratings typically ranging between 35% and 55% for recent presidents. The settlement hinges on the finalised data point—which only becomes confirmed once the subsequent polling aggregate is published, creating a lag between the calendar date and formal resolution.
Historical approval trajectories offer context for interpreting the current 0% implied probability on the YES side. Trump's approval ratings have fluctuated considerably throughout his political career, influenced by legislative victories, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. The current market pricing suggests traders assess the probability of a specific approval threshold being met as negligible, though the exact threshold isn't specified in available market parameters. Comparable approval markets have shown sensitivity to quarterly GDP figures, employment reports, and major policy announcements.
Between now and May 2026, traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions, economic indicators, and legislative developments that typically drive approval movements. The 2026 midterm election cycle will be underway, potentially amplifying partisan polarisation in polling. Silver Bulletin's methodology occasionally undergoes refinement, which could affect how the trend line is calculated. The order book on Polymarket currently reflects consensus scepticism about the YES outcome, though the absence of defined threshold parameters creates interpretive risk at settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump approval rating on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$42K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for approvals contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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