Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of spots songs by or featuring Drake hold in the top 10 spots of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week titled "Week of May 30, 2026". A qualifying song must credit Drake as an artist. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 2 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| 4 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 6 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| 8 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 10 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 1 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 3 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
The market concerns Drake's chart presence on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week ending 30 May 2026, specifically how many songs crediting him will occupy the top 10 positions. The 10% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about Drake holding multiple simultaneous top-10 entries at that specific date.
Drake's historical chart performance provides context for interpreting this probability. Between 2018 and 2023, Drake regularly maintained three to five concurrent top-10 entries following major album releases, with his 2021 album "Certified Lover Boy" peaking with five simultaneous top-10 songs. However, achieving this concentration requires either a fresh album release timed precisely before late May 2026 or sustained momentum from earlier releases—both uncertain conditions. The 10% probability suggests traders assess the likelihood of either scenario materialising as relatively low, particularly given the specificity of the May 2026 window.
Key variables for traders include Drake's release schedule and any announced projects for early 2026. His typical album cycles span two to three years; his last major release was "Scorpion" in 2024, making a 2026 release plausible but unconfirmed. Chart performance also depends on streaming patterns and radio rotation in May 2026, which remain unpredictable. Any official announcement regarding a spring 2026 album rollout would materially shift the probability, as would evidence of sustained chart dominance from earlier releases persisting into that week.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many spots will Drake have in the Billboard top 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for album contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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