Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.00-1.10 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| <0.90 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 1.70-1.80 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| >1.80 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
This market settles on the Binance XRP/USDT pair's noon ET closing price on 15 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The 26% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of the target price level being reached by that specific settlement window. The resolution mechanism ties directly to Binance's published candle data, eliminating ambiguity around data sources, though traders should note that the exact bracket threshold will round upwards if the close falls between two price levels.
XRP has historically exhibited significant volatility around regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts. The token's price action remains sensitive to SEC litigation outcomes and institutional adoption signals, which have created wide trading ranges in prior years. Comparing current positioning to previous bull and bear cycles suggests the 26% probability reflects moderate scepticism about sustained upward momentum through mid-May 2026. Historical precedent shows XRP often consolidates after regulatory clarity, though the timeframe to May 2026 remains sufficiently distant that near-term catalysts may have limited predictive power.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments in US crypto regulation, any announcements regarding Ripple's institutional partnerships, and broader macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets. Bitcoin's trajectory typically influences XRP price action, given their correlation patterns. The settlement window's specificity to a single noon candle introduces execution risk; even modest intraday volatility could determine resolution, making this market sensitive to liquidity conditions on the day itself rather than longer-term directional conviction alone.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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