Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0.90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.00 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.10 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.20 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance XRP/USDT pair's closing price at noon ET on 5 May 2026, contingent on whether that single one-minute candle closes above a specified threshold. The current order book on Polymarket shows 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that XRP will trade above the threshold at that precise moment. Such extreme probabilities typically reflect either a threshold set well below current market conditions or a market structure where the ask-side liquidity is sparse, making marginal trades appear to confirm consensus that may not reflect genuine conviction.
XRP's price action has historically shown significant intraday volatility, particularly around regulatory announcements and broader cryptocurrency market movements. The token's correlation with Bitcoin remains material, though XRP-specific catalysts—including ongoing SEC litigation developments and Ripple's institutional partnerships—have occasionally driven independent price swings. Comparing to similar single-point-in-time markets, noon ET timestamps on major exchanges tend to capture ordinary trading hours rather than volatile open or close periods, which generally reduces extreme price movements relative to 24-hour ranges.
Traders monitoring this market should track any material regulatory filings or Ripple announcements scheduled before May 2026, as well as broader macroeconomic conditions affecting cryptocurrency valuations. The specificity of the settlement mechanism—a single one-minute candle at a defined time—means that flash volatility or order book imbalances at precisely noon ET could influence outcome, rather than sustained directional moves. Current liquidity depth on the Binance pair and any scheduled exchange maintenance windows would merit review before committing capital.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP above ___ on May 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$65K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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