Trade: Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new country accepts an invitation to join BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only new member states, not new partner states, will be considered toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this country will be information from BRICS members (e.g., https://brics.br/en/about-the-brics, etc.); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $22K
- Total Volume
- $35K
- 24h Volume
- $23
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether BRICS will formally admit at least one new member state before the end of 2026. The bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—has expanded once since its 2009 inception, admitting the UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia at the August 2023 summit in Johannesburg. That expansion followed years of discussion and formal application processes. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 46% probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether expansion momentum will sustain through 2026.
Historical precedent suggests expansion cycles are episodic rather than continuous. The bloc operated without new members for fourteen years before the 2023 expansion, which was driven by geopolitical realignment and explicit outreach from existing members. Several countries have signalled interest in membership—including Argentina, Indonesia, Nigeria and Thailand—but formal invitations require consensus among all five founding members, a high bar given divergent strategic interests. Russia's international isolation and China's cautious approach to further dilution of influence create structural constraints on rapid expansion.
The critical catalysts are the annual BRICS summits, with the next scheduled for 2025 and 2026. Traders should monitor statements from member governments regarding expansion criteria and candidate countries, particularly following any geopolitical shifts affecting consensus-building. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg has highlighted internal disagreements over expansion pace, with India and South Africa expressing caution about institutional capacity. The resolution hinges on formal acceptance of an invitation by 31 December 2026, meaning any expansion must be formally announced and ratified well before year-end.
Wikipedia Context
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Brick and mortarBrick and mortar is an organization or business with a physical presence in a building or other structure. The term brick-and-mortar business is often used to refer to a company that possesses or leases retail shops, factory production facilities, or warehouses for its operations. More specifically, in the jargon of e-commerce businesses in the 2000s, brick-
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BricsCADBricsCAD is a software application for computer-aided design (CAD), developed by Bricsys NV. The company was founded in 2002 by Erik de Keyser, a long-time CAD entrepreneur. In 2011 Bricsys acquired the intellectual property rights from Ledas for constraints-based parametric design tools, permitting the development of applications in the areas of direct mode
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Bricks and Mortar
Bricks and Mortar is an American Thoroughbred racehorse who was named the American Horse of the Year in 2019. After winning four of six starts at age three, he missed most of his four-year-old campaign due to illness. At age five however, he established himself as the top-ranked turf horse in North America with wins in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, Muniz Memor
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Adele BriceAdele Brice, T.O.S.F. was a Belgian-born American Catholic laywoman and Marian visionary who reported a series of visions of the Blessed Virgin Mary in 1859 in what is now Champion, Wisconsin, then a rural Belgian Catholic settlement.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 48% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $208 if YES resolves true — a 108% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$35K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 48%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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