Resolution criteria on PolyGram: An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Geopolitical markets aggregate signals from journalists, analysts, and locals - often pricing in news days before mainstream outlets report it. Current odds favour the NO side at 34%, making this a directional market with 45 days to resolution - long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $3K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake - winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gintautas Kindurys | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Mėta Palauskaitė | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Vladislav Kondratovič | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Antanas Šakalis | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Andrej Šildiajėv | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Nikolajus Lebedevičius | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Viktor Voronin | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Maksimas Paukštė | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 34% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-11-08T23:59:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 8 November 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Geopolitical markets sometimes see longer dispute windows because resolution sources can be contested (e.g. competing official announcements). PolyGram pre-screens the resolution source on listing to minimise ambiguity. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically - every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner", geopolitical markets often have stickier spreads (3-7¢) reflecting the genuine uncertainty in the underlying outcome - patient limit orders fill at meaningfully better prices than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake - winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($3K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge - no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin - large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $379 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market - a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month - fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery - meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake - there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon - a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition - historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner", the considerations above apply directly - Geopolitical markets carry resolution risk: in rare cases the underlying event itself may be reinterpreted or the resolution source may publish ambiguously, triggering a UMA dispute. Avoid all-in positions on these markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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