Trade: Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $184K
- Total Volume
- $166K
- 24h Volume
- $5K
- Open Interest
- $19K
Market outcomes
| Civil Contract | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Armenian National Congress | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Prosperous Armenia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Strong Armenia | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Party J | — | |
| Armenia Alliance | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Bright Armenia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Uzhakh Hayastan | — | |
Market context
Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, with the winning party determined by which secures the greatest number of seats in the 101-seat National Assembly. The current order book on Polymarket prices the election occurring as scheduled at 93% implied probability, reflecting confidence that voting will proceed within the settlement window extending to 31 December 2026. This pricing incorporates baseline assumptions about political stability and institutional continuity in the South Caucasus nation.
Armenia's electoral history provides context for assessing this probability. The country has conducted parliamentary elections in 2018 and 2021 despite significant regional tensions, including the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and subsequent political turbulence. The 2021 election proceeded despite widespread opposition protests and calls for boycotts, establishing a precedent for institutional resilience. However, Armenia faces ongoing security concerns following the 2022 border clashes with Azerbaijan, which could theoretically disrupt the 2026 electoral calendar, though no such disruption occurred in 2021.
Key catalysts for traders include announcements regarding campaign regulations, any escalation of Azerbaijan border tensions, and domestic political developments affecting party registration or candidacy rules. The Armenian government's capacity to maintain security and electoral administration will be critical; any significant military escalation or internal political crisis could trigger postponement. Current regional stability and the absence of calls for electoral delay from major political actors suggest the 93% probability reflects genuine confidence in the election proceeding as scheduled, though geopolitical volatility in the South Caucasus remains a material risk factor.
Wikipedia Context
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2007 Armenian parliamentary electionParliamentary elections were held in Armenia on 12 May 2007. 1,364 candidates ran for the 131 seats, 41 of which were constituency seats with the remaining 90 being filled by a proportional party-list system. The electoral threshold was five per cent.
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2018 Armenian parliamentary election
Snap parliamentary elections were held in Armenia on 9 December 2018, as none of the parties in the National Assembly were able to put forward and then elect a candidate for Prime Minister in the two-week period following the resignation of incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on 16 October. They were the first elections after the 2018 revolution and the
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2012 Armenian parliamentary electionParliamentary elections were held in Armenia on 6 May 2012. President Serzh Sargsyan's ruling Republican Party gained more majority of the parliament seats. Armenia's wealthiest man Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia came second with about one fourth of the seats, while ANC, ARF, Rule of Law and Heritage won less than 10 percent each.
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2017 Armenian parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections were held in Armenia on 2 April 2017. They were the first elections after a constitutional referendum in 2015 that approved reforms for the country to become a parliamentary republic. The result was a victory for the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, which won 58 of the 105 seats in the National Assembly.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$166K in lifetime turnover and $184K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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