Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for May 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of May 2026. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.5" | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| 0.5-1" | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 1-1.5" | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| 1.5-2" | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 2-2.5" | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| 2.5-3" | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| >3" | 10% YES | 90% NO |
This market settles on whether measurable precipitation will occur in Seattle during May 2026, with resolution determined by NOAA's official monthly precipitation data for Seattle City Area. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 24% probability of precipitation occurring, reflecting traders' assessment of May weather patterns in the Pacific Northwest.
Seattle's May precipitation climatology provides the baseline for interpreting this probability. Historical data shows May averages approximately 3.7 inches of precipitation across the month, with measurable rain occurring in roughly 15 of the 31 days on average. The city's maritime climate typically transitions from spring's wetter conditions toward drier summer patterns by late May. The 24% implied probability appears to discount the historical frequency of May precipitation, suggesting traders are pricing in either a notably drier-than-average May or are interpreting the market's resolution criteria narrowly.
Traders monitoring this market should track Pacific weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any atmospheric river activity in the weeks preceding the settlement window. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks, issued monthly, will provide updated precipitation probability forecasts for the Pacific Northwest. The specificity of NOAA's Seattle City Area measurement station means local topography and microclimatic factors will determine the final reading, making real-time weather station data increasingly relevant as May progresses.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Precipitation in Seattle in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$703 in lifetime turnover and $639 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $52 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: