Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 11°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 12°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 13°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 14°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 16°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 17°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 3 May 2026, the lowest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for the station. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with price discovery at present.
Shanghai's May climate typically sees minimum temperatures between 16–22°C, though variation depends heavily on weather systems moving through the Yangtze River Delta region. Historical May data from Pudong station shows occasional dips to 14–15°C during cooler frontal passages, whilst warm years have seen minimums above 20°C. The 0% probability reading suggests traders have not yet committed capital to any specific range, making current prices unreliable for assessing genuine market expectations.
Key variables affecting the outcome include the timing and intensity of any cold fronts crossing eastern China in early May, as well as broader seasonal patterns established by late April conditions. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and regional weather models as May approaches, particularly any signals of anomalous circulation patterns. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single airport station means local microclimatic factors and measurement timing will be decisive—conditions recorded at nearby urban or rural sites could differ meaningfully from Pudong's readings.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$19K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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