Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 69°F or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70-71°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72-73°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 74-75°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 76-77°F | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78-79°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-81°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 82-83°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 6 May 2026, the lowest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport will fall within a specific range measured in Fahrenheit. The market resolves based on historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the minimum temperature across all hours of that calendar day. Current order book activity on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in warmer conditions or minimal liquidity across available temperature bands.
Miami's May climate typically produces overnight lows between 72–78°F, with cooler readings possible during anomalous weather patterns. Historical May data from NOAA shows that temperatures below 70°F occur rarely in Miami during this month, roughly once per decade, whilst readings above 80°F overnight are exceptionally uncommon. The current crowd probability reflects standard seasonal expectations: May represents late spring in South Florida with established warm patterns and minimal risk of cold snaps. Traders should note that the settlement window closes at midday on 6 May, meaning overnight lows from the preceding evening will be captured.
Relevant catalysts include Atlantic tropical weather systems, which occasionally bring cooler air masses to South Florida in May, though such events remain infrequent. The National Weather Service Miami office publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days in advance. Traders monitoring this market should track early May weather pattern discussions from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which identifies whether any anomalous systems might affect South Florida's typical May temperature regime during the relevant period.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 6?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$75K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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