Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 950–999 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1050–1099 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1150–1199 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 1250+ | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| <950 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1000–1049 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1100–1149 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1200–1249 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
The United States experiences significant tornado activity annually, with the National Centers for Environmental Information maintaining the definitive historical record. The 2026 tornado count will be determined by monthly reports published throughout 2026 and into early 2027, with final settlement based on NCEI's complete dataset. The current order book on Polymarket reflects 0% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity at current price levels.
Historical tornado counts in the United States typically range between 800 and 1,500 annually, though this varies considerably by year and seasonal conditions. The 20-year average sits around 1,000 tornadoes per year, with notable variation driven by atmospheric patterns, El Niño and La Niña cycles, and seasonal wind shear conditions. The 2024 season saw elevated activity, whilst 2022 recorded approximately 1,092 tornadoes. Understanding this baseline distribution is essential for evaluating whether the current market pricing reflects genuine consensus or represents an information gap.
Traders should monitor NOAA's seasonal forecasts and monthly tornado reports as they release throughout 2026, with the December 2026 report scheduled for early 2027. The settlement window closes 10 January 2027, allowing time for the final monthly data to be published and verified. Spring and early summer typically produce peak tornado activity in the United States, making conditions from March through June particularly relevant for assessing annual totals. Any significant atmospheric pattern shifts or unexpected seasonal anomalies will influence the final count materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$71K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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