Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 29°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 31°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 32°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 33°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 34°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 35°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 36°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 6 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, capturing the peak temperature across all hours of the day. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with range pricing that traders should verify before positioning.
Manila's May climate sits within the pre-monsoon hot season, with historical May temperatures at the airport typically ranging between 28°C and 35°C, though extremes can exceed 36°C during particularly intense heat events. The 0% probability across all ranges is unusual given that one range must resolve as correct; this suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or that traders are awaiting clearer range definitions before committing capital. Comparable May temperature markets in tropical locations typically see concentrated probability in the 32–35°C band.
Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) seasonal forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories regarding heat waves or anomalous warming patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 would materially shift temperature expectations. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 6 May, giving traders until that point to reconcile their positions against actual recorded temperatures.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Manila on May 6?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: