Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 26°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 27°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 28°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 29°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 31°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 32°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 33°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 10 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with historical temperature data from Weather Underground serving as the official reference. Traders are currently pricing a 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will occur or minimal trading activity establishing initial liquidity on Polymarket's order book.
Chengdu's May climate typically sees maximum temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during warm years. Historical May data from the airport station shows considerable year-to-year variation; the city experiences its transition into early summer during this period, with increasing solar radiation and humidity. The 0% crowd probability reflects the current state of the order book rather than a genuine forecast that no temperature will be recorded—this is standard for newly listed weather markets awaiting initial price discovery.
Key variables affecting the outcome include regional weather patterns in late April and early May 2026, particularly the strength of any pre-monsoon systems moving into Sichuan Province. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China's meteorological authorities and broader atmospheric circulation patterns in the weeks preceding the settlement date. Local air quality and urban heat island effects at the airport station can also influence recorded maxima. The specificity of using Shuangliu's official station data means microclimatic conditions at that location matter more than general Chengdu temperatures.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$73K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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