Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 67°F or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 68-69°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70-71°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72-73°F | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 74-75°F | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 76-77°F | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 78-79°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-81°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 7 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The National Weather Service operates the official station used for settlement, with data archived through Weather Underground's historical records. Atlanta's May climate typically produces highs between 80–90°F, though the specific conditions on that date remain dependent on seasonal weather patterns months in advance.
Historical May temperatures in Atlanta show considerable variability. Over the past three decades, May highs have ranged from the mid-70s°F during cooler years to the low 90s°F during warmer periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive extreme outcomes as unlikely, though this reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting specific daily temperatures nearly two years ahead rather than any certainty about the eventual outcome. Comparable spring weather events in the Southeast demonstrate that May can produce both unseasonably cool and warm conditions depending on jet stream positioning and high-pressure systems.
Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in the months preceding May 2026, which typically provide guidance on temperature trends for spring months. Long-range weather pattern discussions, particularly those addressing potential La Niña or El Niño conditions, may influence expectations for the broader May period. Real-time forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement, when meteorological models gain sufficient accuracy for daily temperature predictions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$95K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $79K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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