Trade: New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New York. If no 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $26K
- Total Volume
- $52K
- 24h Volume
- $49
- Open Interest
- $5K
Market outcomes
| Kathy Hochul | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
Market context
New York will hold a Democratic primary election for governor in 2026, with the winner becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee for the general election. Governor Kathy Hochul, who assumed office in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo's resignation, is widely expected to seek re-election. The primary winner typically faces minimal opposition in the general election given New York's Democratic lean, making the primary outcome effectively decisive for statewide office.
The 97% implied probability reflects high confidence that a Democratic primary will occur as scheduled. Historical precedent supports this: New York has held uninterrupted gubernatorial primaries in recent cycles, with 2022 seeing Hochul defeat Tom Suozzi and Letitia James in a three-way contest. The current probability also assumes no extraordinary circumstances—such as Hochul declining to run or the Democratic Party cancelling the primary—materialise before June 2026. Comparable states with strong single-party dominance show similar certainty in primary occurrence.
Traders should monitor Hochul's formal re-election announcement and any significant challengers declaring candidacy. The New York Democratic Party's official primary schedule confirmation, typically issued in late 2025, will be a key catalyst. Recent reporting on state budget negotiations and crime policy positions Hochul's standing within the party, though her approval ratings have fluctuated. The settlement window closes 23 June 2026, allowing time for official results certification. The Polymarket order book currently prices the YES outcome at this elevated level, reflecting minimal perceived risk of primary cancellation or non-occurrence.
Wikipedia Context
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New York CityNew York, often called New York City (NYC), is the most populous city in the United States. It is located at the southern tip of New York State on New York Harbor, one of the world's largest natural harbors. The city comprises five boroughs, each coextensive with its respective county. It is the geographical and demographic center of both the Northeast megal
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The New York TimesThe New York Times (NYT) is a newspaper based in Manhattan, New York City. The New York Times covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces and reviews. One of the longest-running newspapers in the United States, the Times serves as one of the country's newspapers of record. As of August 2025, The New York Times had 11.88 mi
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New York (state)New York, also called New York State, is a state located in the northeastern United States. Bordering New England to its east, Canada to its north, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey to its south, it extends into both the Atlantic Ocean and the Great Lakes. New York is the fourth-most populous state in the United States, with over 20 million residents, and the
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New York KnicksThe New York Knickerbockers, shortened and more commonly referred to as the New York Knicks, are an American professional basketball team based in the New York City borough of Manhattan. The Knicks compete in the National Basketball Association (NBA) as a member of the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference. The team plays its home games at Madison Squa
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$52K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $49 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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