Trade: Maine Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $61K
- Total Volume
- $230K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $94K
Market outcomes
| Democrat | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Republican | 22% YES | 79% NO |
Market context
Maine will hold a U.S. Senate election in November 2026 to determine which party controls one of the chamber's seats. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for the Democratic nominee, suggesting traders assess a substantial but not overwhelming likelihood of Democratic retention. This probability emerges from the aggregated positions of market participants responding to available information about candidate strength, state demographics, and national political conditions.
Maine's Senate seat has remained in Democratic hands since 2012, when Angus King, an independent, won and subsequently caucused with Democrats. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2004 and leans centre-left on most policy measures, though it contains pockets of Republican strength, particularly in rural areas. Historical precedent suggests incumbent-party advantage in a state with this lean, though midterm dynamics can shift substantially from presidential-year patterns. The 2022 midterm proved stronger for Democrats nationally than typical for a party holding the presidency, complicating straightforward historical extrapolation.
Key catalysts for market movement include formal candidate announcements from both parties, typically occurring in 2025 or early 2026, and the strength of any Republican primary challenge. National economic conditions and approval ratings in the months preceding the election will influence the broader midterm environment. Traders should monitor whether Senator Angus King seeks re-election or retires, as his independent status and personal popularity have shaped Maine's recent Senate dynamics. Any significant shifts in Maine's economic performance or demographic composition could also alter the competitive landscape materially.
Wikipedia Context
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Maine SenateThe Maine Senate is the upper house of the Maine Legislature, the state legislature of the U.S. state of Maine. The Senate currently consists of 35 members representing an equal number of districts across the state, though the Maine Constitution allows for "an odd number of Senators, not less than 31 nor more than 35". Unlike the lower House, the Senate does
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List of presidents of the Maine SenateThe position of President of the Maine Senate was created when Maine separated from Massachusetts and achieved statehood in 1820.
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Maine State PoliceThe Maine State Police (MSP) is the state police agency for Maine, which has jurisdiction across the state and was created in 1921.
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Maine State Route 11State Route 11 (SR 11) is a state highway in the U.S. state of Maine. It is a major interregional route which runs nearly the entire length of the state from south to north. The southern terminus of SR 11 is at the New Hampshire state line in Lebanon, where it connects to New Hampshire Route 11. The northern terminus is at U.S. Route 1 (US 1) and SR 161 in F
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Maine Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$230K in lifetime turnover and $61K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Maine Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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