Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures XRP price movement over a five-minute window on 9 May 2026, from 4:20AM to 4:25AM ET, settling against Chainlink's XRP/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The 0% implied probability reflects the current orderbook state on Polymarket, where no traders have positioned for an upward move during this specific intraday interval. Five-minute price windows typically exhibit minimal directional bias absent major news or exchange-level events, yet the complete absence of YES orders suggests either technical disinterest in such short-duration contracts or conviction around downward pressure at that particular timestamp.
Historical precedent for ultra-short XRP price intervals shows high sensitivity to cryptocurrency market microstructure—order flow imbalances, liquidations on leveraged positions, and coordinated trading activity can produce sharp moves in either direction within minutes. The 0% probability may underweight tail-risk scenarios where Asian or European market opens coincide with breaking news regarding regulatory developments, exchange listings, or macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite for altcoins.
Traders monitoring this contract should track XRP's price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, particularly any announcements from major exchanges or regulatory bodies. The Chainlink data feed's timestamp precision matters; discrepancies between spot markets and the oracle's reported price at 4:25AM ET could create settlement ambiguity. Volatility clustering in cryptocurrency markets means that if XRP experiences meaningful movement in the preceding hours, the probability of directional continuation into the settlement window warrants reassessment against the current zero-probability pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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