Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement over a five-minute window on 13 May between 7:15pm and 7:20pm ET will determine this market's resolution, with settlement contingent on Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed rather than spot exchange pricing. The current 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about directional movement across such a compressed timeframe, where typical intraday volatility patterns and order flow dynamics become the primary drivers rather than fundamental shifts in the asset's valuation.
Five-minute price windows in crypto markets historically exhibit near-random walk characteristics, particularly for mid-cap tokens where liquidity concentrations can amplify minor trading activity into measurable swings. Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange token, trades with moderate liquidity across major venues; comparable ultra-short-window markets on Polymarket have shown that equilibrium pricing at 50% reflects genuine difficulty in forecasting such granular movements rather than balanced bullish and bearish conviction.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's ecosystem announcements and broader market conditions in the days preceding the settlement window, as any material news regarding protocol updates or exchange activity could shift positioning ahead of the snapshot. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple sources with a slight lag, so spot market movements in the final seconds before 7:20pm ET may not fully register in the settlement price. Volatility clustering during US market hours and any correlated moves in major cryptocurrency indices warrant attention as potential catalysts for directional bias in this specific interval.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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