Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
BNB is trading at a 50-50 probability of closing higher or lower during a five-minute window on 11 May 2026 between 3:25PM and 3:30PM ET. The market settles against Chainlink's BNB/USD data stream rather than spot exchange prices, which can occasionally diverge during volatile periods or low-liquidity intervals. This five-minute resolution window represents an extremely tight timeframe for price movement, making the even split across Polymarket's order book a reflection of genuine uncertainty rather than directional conviction.
Five-minute price action in major crypto assets typically correlates with broader market momentum during US trading hours, though such short windows are heavily influenced by order flow and local volatility clustering. Historical precedent suggests that during calm market conditions, BNB exhibits minimal directional bias over five-minute periods, with roughly equal probability of small upward and downward moves. The current 50% implied probability aligns with this baseline expectation, indicating traders perceive no material edge in either direction at this specific time window.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader price trajectory in the days leading to 11 May, particularly any announcements from Binance regarding network upgrades, regulatory developments, or macroeconomic shifts affecting crypto markets. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple sources, so any flash crashes or exchange-specific anomalies during the settlement window could create discrepancies between spot markets and the resolution source. The tight five-minute window means even minor volatility spikes or order book imbalances could determine settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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