Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Russia's advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has stalled considerably since 2022, with frontline positions largely frozen across much of the region. Huliaipilske, a small settlement in the oblast's south-eastern sector, remains under Ukrainian control as of late 2024. The specific intersection referenced sits within territory that Russian forces have not approached closely in recent months, despite periodic offensive operations elsewhere along the broader front. Current order book pricing on Polymarket reflects this stasis, with the 0% implied probability indicating traders assess negligible likelihood of Russian capture by May 2026.
Historical precedent suggests that meaningful territorial shifts in this sector require sustained Russian offensive capability and logistical concentration. The 2022–2023 period saw Russia capture territory across Zaporizhzhia, but momentum contracted sharply by mid-2023 as Ukrainian defences solidified and Russian forces redeployed northward. Comparable settlements in the oblast have remained contested or static for 18+ months, suggesting that rapid breakthroughs are uncommon absent major strategic reorientation or force concentration.
Traders monitoring this market should track Russian force deployments in southern sectors, particularly whether Moscow redirects units from other fronts toward Zaporizhzhia. ISW assessments and Ukrainian General Staff updates provide the most reliable real-time indicators of tactical momentum. Announcements regarding Western military aid flows and Ukrainian force posture in the region would also signal material shifts in the underlying military balance, though near-term catalysts for Russian advances appear limited.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ukraine map contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $300 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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