Trade: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $108K
- Total Volume
- $217K
- 24h Volume
- $8
- Open Interest
- $48K
Market outcomes
| Roger Ver | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Elon Musk | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Matt Gaetz | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Joe Exotic | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Eric Adams | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Himself | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Young Thug | 10% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
Presidential pardons represent a significant exercise of executive power, particularly when applied to politically sensitive figures. Trump's first term saw 143 pardons and commutations issued, concentrated heavily in the final weeks of his presidency. The current market prices the likelihood of a pardon being issued to a specified individual between November 2025 and December 2026 at 14%, reflecting substantial uncertainty about both Trump's pardon strategy and the identity of the target.
Historical precedent suggests pardon activity clusters around specific moments: the transition period between administrations, responses to legal developments affecting allies, and strategic political calculations. Trump's 2017–2021 tenure demonstrated willingness to pardon figures facing federal charges, though the timing and rationale varied considerably. The 22-month window through end-2026 encompasses sufficient time for legal proceedings to advance or conclude, potentially triggering pardon decisions tied to conviction outcomes or sentencing dates.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements regarding ongoing federal cases involving Trump associates, statements from Trump's legal team regarding potential clemency applications, and developments in congressional investigations. Recent reporting on Trump's return to office in January 2025 has included discussion of potential pardons for individuals convicted in relation to January 6th events and other matters. The Polymarket order book currently reflects the 14% probability through the spread between buy and sell orders; material shifts in legal timelines or public statements from Trump's representatives could substantially move this implied probability.
Wikipedia Context
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Barron TrumpBarron William Trump is the fifth and youngest child of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, and his only child with his third wife, Melania Trump, which makes him a member of the first family of the United States, the Trump family.
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Political interference with science agencies by the first Trump administration
During his first term as president of the United States (2017–2021), Donald Trump and his administration repeatedly politicized science by pressuring or overriding health and science agencies to change their reporting and recommendations so as to conform to his policies and public comments. This was particularly true with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, but
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$217K in lifetime turnover and $108K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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