Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31, 2026 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
At least one member of Donald Trump's second-term cabinet will depart their position before the end of 2025, whether through resignation, removal, retirement, or other departure. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating traders assess this outcome as virtually certain within the settlement window.
Cabinet turnover during a presidential term is commonplace. Trump's first administration (2017–2021) saw significant departures: Rex Tillerson left the State Department after 14 months, James Mattis departed Defence after two years, and multiple other cabinet-level officials exited before term's end. Historical precedent suggests that even relatively stable administrations experience at least one cabinet-level departure annually, whether due to policy disagreements, personal circumstances, or performance concerns. The 100% probability reflects both this baseline historical pattern and the specific dynamics of Trump's leadership style, which has historically involved higher-than-average personnel turnover.
Traders monitoring this market should track several catalysts. Public tensions between cabinet members and the President, particularly over policy direction or media coverage, often precede departures. Confirmation hearings and early legislative priorities will establish which portfolios face immediate pressure. Congressional dynamics—particularly if Republicans face internal divisions on key issues—could accelerate departures from contested departments. Recent reporting on cabinet selection processes has highlighted potential friction points around immigration enforcement, trade policy, and defence spending. The resolution window extends through 31 December 2025, providing roughly 12 months for departures to materialise.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump cabinet member out by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: