Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mei Yamaguchi and Erika Sema in the ITF Women Wuning, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mei Yamaguchi' if Mei Yamaguchi advances against Erika Sema. This market will resolve to 'Erika Sema' if Erika Sema advances against Mei Yamaguchi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Erika Sema | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Mei Yamaguchi and Erika Sema are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Wuning tournament on 2 June 2026 at 10:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability for Yamaguchi's advancement, suggesting the market views her as a clear favourite. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and reflects the aggregate assessment of participants pricing the match outcome.
Yamaguchi's positioning at this probability level warrants context against comparable ITF women's matches and the historical performance differential between these two players. ITF tournaments typically feature significant variance in player form and ranking disparity; an 80% probability generally indicates either a substantial ranking gap, recent form advantage, or head-to-head record favouring Yamaguchi. Without recent public ranking shifts or injury announcements, the market is likely anchored to pre-tournament seeding and historical matchup data available to traders.
Key catalysts to monitor include official tournament draw confirmation, any withdrawal announcements from either player, and weather conditions affecting the Wuning venue in early June. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches. Traders should track ITF official communications and player social media for fitness updates in the days preceding the match, as late withdrawals or retirements mid-match would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Current liquidity and order book depth will determine execution costs for positions at the 80% level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Erika Sema" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$107 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $107 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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