Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Martinez Vaquero and Valentina Losciale in the ITF Women Montemor-O-Novo, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Martinez Vaquero' if Maria Martinez Vaquero advances against Valentina Losciale. This market will resolve to 'Valentina Losciale' if Valentina Losciale advances against Maria Martinez Vaquero. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Maria Martinez Vaquero vs Valentina Losciale | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Maria Martinez Vaquero faces Valentina Losciale in the ITF Women's tournament at Montemor-O-Novo, scheduled for 2 June 2026. The match is a first-round encounter in a lower-tier ITF event, where both players are competing for ranking points and prize money. The current market probability sits at 100% YES on Polymarket's order book, indicating traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood that Martinez Vaquero advances past Losciale.
ITF Women's matches at this level carry inherent execution risk that typically prevents markets from reaching absolute certainty. Historical precedent across comparable ITF tournaments shows that even heavily favoured players face upsets at rates between 15–25%, depending on surface, seeding differential, and recent form. The 100% probability reflects either a significant disparity in player rankings or recent performance data that has convinced the market of a near-certain outcome. Without recent injury announcements or withdrawal notices, such extreme pricing usually indicates Martinez Vaquero holds a substantial ranking or form advantage over her opponent.
Traders should monitor the official ITF website and tournament draws for any last-minute withdrawals, scheduling changes, or surface conditions that might affect play. The settlement window closes 9 June 2026, allowing a one-week buffer beyond the scheduled date. Any delay beyond 7 days without a completed match would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Court availability and weather conditions at the Portuguese venue are secondary catalysts to track, though ITF events rarely face significant postponements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Maria Martinez Vaquero vs Valentina Losciale" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $71K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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