Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Doga Turkmen and Emily Sartz-Lunde in the ITF Women Kayseri, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Doga Turkmen' if Doga Turkmen advances against Emily Sartz-Lunde. This market will resolve to 'Emily Sartz-Lunde' if Emily Sartz-Lunde advances against Doga Turkmen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Doga Turkmen vs Emily Sartz-Lunde | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Doga Turkmen, a Turkish player competing on the ITF circuit, faces Emily Sartz-Lunde in the Women's ITF tournament at Kayseri, scheduled for 2 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 26% implied probability for Turkmen's advancement, suggesting Sartz-Lunde is favoured at roughly 74%. The match settlement window closes on 9 June, allowing a week for completion; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that period triggers a 50-50 resolution.
ITF Women's tournaments typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, with outcomes heavily dependent on recent form and surface-specific performance. Turkmen's 26% probability suggests either a significant ranking or recent-form disadvantage relative to Sartz-Lunde, or that the Norwegian player has demonstrated stronger clay-court credentials—Kayseri's surface. Historical ITF matchups at this level show considerable volatility; upsets occur regularly when lower-ranked players face injury concerns or motivation fluctuations in their opponents. The current order book pricing reflects this baseline assessment.
Traders should monitor ITF entry lists and withdrawal announcements through the ATP/WTA databases in the days preceding 2 June, as last-minute scratches are common at lower-tier events. Recent form data from qualifying rounds or preceding ITF tournaments will clarify whether either player has momentum shifts. Weather delays in Kayseri during early June could extend the match timeline, though the seven-day buffer makes resolution straightforward unless severe disruption occurs.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Doga Turkmen vs Emily Sartz-Lunde" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: