Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ko Suzuki and Koki Matsuda in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ko Suzuki' if Ko Suzuki advances against Koki Matsuda. This market will resolve to 'Koki Matsuda' if Koki Matsuda advances against Ko Suzuki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Ko Suzuki vs Koki Matsuda | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ko Suzuki and Koki Matsuda are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Karuizawa tournament on 26 May 2026. The match will determine advancement in what is a lower-tier professional tennis circuit event. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a Suzuki victory, reflecting either minimal trading activity or strong consensus backing Matsuda. With settlement occurring on 3 June 2026, traders have roughly a week after the scheduled match date to assess outcomes.
ITF Men's events at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 200, many competing for ranking points and prize money whilst developing their professional records. Historical patterns show that matches between relatively unknown domestic Japanese players often see sparse market liquidity, which can produce extreme probability readings that don't necessarily reflect genuine competitive balance. The 0% implied probability suggests either the market has identified a significant disparity in player form or recent results, or the order book remains too thin to establish a meaningful consensus.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament draws and any player withdrawal announcements in the days preceding 26 May. Recent player injury reports, ranking updates, or head-to-head records between Suzuki and Matsuda would provide concrete data for reassessing the current probability. Weather conditions in Karuizawa during late May could also affect match scheduling. Any delay beyond 7 June without a completed match triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk that may not be priced into current orders.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Ko Suzuki vs Koki Matsuda" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$93 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: