Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Anastasiya Sobolieva and Claire Liu in the ITF Women Trnava, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anastasiya Sobolieva' if Anastasiya Sobolieva advances against Claire Liu. This market will resolve to 'Claire Liu' if Claire Liu advances against Anastasiya Sobolieva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Trnava: Anastasiya Sobolieva vs Claire Liu | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Anastasiya Sobolieva faces Claire Liu in the ITF Women's tournament at Trnava, Slovakia, scheduled for 14 May 2026. The market currently implies a 36% probability of Sobolieva advancing, with the settlement window closing on 21 May 2026 at 10:30 UTC. Polymarket's order book is pricing this matchup with Sobolieva as the underdog despite her seeding position in the draw, suggesting the market has incorporated recent form data or head-to-head considerations favouring Liu.
Historical ITF Women's results at Trnava show competitive depth across the draw, with lower-ranked players regularly upsetting higher seeds on clay courts. Sobolieva's recent performance trajectory and Liu's consistency on European clay surfaces provide the foundation for current pricing. The 36% probability reflects neither player as a prohibitive favourite, indicating genuine uncertainty in the market's assessment of this matchup.
Traders should monitor player withdrawal announcements and injury updates through the ITF's official schedule in the week preceding the match. Weather conditions at Trnava—particularly rain delays that could compress the tournament schedule—represent a material catalyst, as the settlement window includes a seven-day extension clause. Any changes to either player's ranking or recent tournament results before 14 May will likely shift the order book pricing, particularly if either competitor posts significant wins or losses on clay in the preceding weeks.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Trnava: Anastasiya Sobolieva vs Claire Liu" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$148 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $148 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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