Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Justin Schlageter and Adrian Oetzbach in the ITF Men Troisdorf, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 7:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Justin Schlageter' if Justin Schlageter advances against Adrian Oetzbach. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Oetzbach' if Adrian Oetzbach advances against Justin Schlageter. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Troisdorf: Justin Schlageter vs Adrian Oetzbach | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Justin Schlageter and Adrian Oetzbach are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Troisdorf tournament on 28 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture within the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Schlageter, indicating the market has priced in an expectation of his advancement with near-certainty.
ITF Men's tournaments at this level typically feature significant variance in outcomes, with upsets occurring regularly amongst players ranked outside the ATP top 200. Historical data from comparable ITF fixtures shows that extreme probabilities (above 95%) are rare unless one player holds a substantial ranking advantage or recent head-to-head record. The absence of publicly available historical matchups between these specific competitors, combined with limited recent tournament performance data in widely tracked databases, suggests the current pricing may reflect limited liquidity or information asymmetry rather than definitive form assessment.
Key variables for traders include confirmation of both players' participation closer to the scheduled date, any last-minute withdrawals due to injury, and weather conditions at the Troisdorf venue. The settlement window closes on 4 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the original match date for completion. Traders should monitor ITF official draws and player social media for withdrawal announcements, which typically occur 48–72 hours before scheduled matches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Troisdorf: Justin Schlageter vs Adrian Oetzbach" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$113 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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