Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Sara Popa and Laura Samson in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Sara Popa' if Maria Sara Popa advances against Laura Samson. This market will resolve to 'Laura Samson' if Laura Samson advances against Maria Sara Popa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Maria Sara Popa vs Laura Samson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Maria Sara Popa faces Laura Samson in an ITF Women's tournament match at Kursumlijska Banja, Serbia, scheduled for 28 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero volume at YES, with the implied probability reflecting minimal backing for Popa to advance. This pricing suggests either substantial uncertainty about match completion, limited trader interest in this lower-tier ITF event, or confidence in Samson's chances based on available information.
ITF Women's matches at this tier typically feature significant volatility in player availability and form. Comparable ITF tournaments show that matches scheduled months in advance frequently experience withdrawals, rescheduling, or cancellations due to injury or circuit conflicts. The settlement window extends to 4 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; any delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution. Historical data on similar ITF events suggests that cancellation risk alone can suppress YES prices substantially, particularly when limited public information exists on either player's current ranking trajectory or injury status.
Traders should monitor ITF entry lists and withdrawal announcements in late May, as player confirmations typically crystallise one to two weeks before tournament starts. Popa and Samson's recent match records, if available through WTA or ITF databases, will clarify relative form. Weather disruptions at the venue and any scheduling conflicts with higher-tier tournaments could affect match timing. The current zero-probability reading likely reflects thin liquidity rather than definitive market conviction, leaving room for repricing once tournament logistics become clearer.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Maria Sara Popa vs Laura Samson" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$258 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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