Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Weiwen Pan and Yuta Kikuchi in the ITF Men Wuning, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Weiwen Pan' if Weiwen Pan advances against Yuta Kikuchi. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Kikuchi' if Yuta Kikuchi advances against Weiwen Pan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wuning: Weiwen Pan vs Yuta Kikuchi | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Weiwen Pan faces Yuta Kikuchi in the ITF Men's tournament at Wuning, scheduled for 13 May 2026. The market currently prices Pan's advancement at 7% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting substantial backing for Kikuchi. This probability emerges from live trading activity where the spread between bid and ask prices settles the implied odds; the 7% figure represents where counterparties are willing to transact on Pan's chances.
ITF Men's matches at this tier typically favour players with consistent ranking momentum and recent match fitness. Kikuchi's implied 93% probability suggests either a significant ranking or recent form advantage, or that Pan carries injury concerns or extended layoffs. Historical ITF tournament data shows that lower-ranked challengers rarely exceed 10% win probability against favoured opponents in first-round matchups, particularly when the spread is this wide. The settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion before triggering a 50-50 resolution.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament updates for any schedule changes, player withdrawals, or late injury announcements prior to 13 May. Recent ATP or ITF results for both players would clarify their current form trajectory. Any announcement of Pan's withdrawal or Kikuchi's injury would immediately shift the order book. Similarly, confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled without roster changes would likely reinforce the current probability unless new information emerges about either player's condition or recent performance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wuning: Weiwen Pan vs Yuta Kikuchi" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $121 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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