Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Aziz Ouakaa and Augusto Mateo Lucarelli in the ITF Men Monastir, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 8:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aziz Ouakaa' if Aziz Ouakaa advances against Augusto Mateo Lucarelli. This market will resolve to 'Augusto Mateo Lucarelli' if Augusto Mateo Lucarelli advances against Aziz Ouakaa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Augusto Mateo Lucarelli | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Aziz Ouakaa faces Augusto Mateo Lucarelli in the ITF Men's Monastir tournament, originally scheduled for 3 June 2026 at 8:45 AM ET. The 95% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong backing for Ouakaa to advance from this match. ITF Monastir events typically draw players ranked between 400–800 on the ATP scale, with tournament draws often featuring regional competitors and developmental players seeking ranking points.
Ouakaa's positioning at such a high implied probability suggests the market has incorporated information about relative rankings, recent form, or head-to-head records between the two players. ITF circuit matches frequently see favourites advance, though upsets occur at meaningful frequency—roughly 15–20% of matches see the lower-ranked player prevail. The current probability sits well above baseline upset rates, indicating either a substantial ranking gap or recent performance differential between the pair.
Traders should monitor ITF Monastir's official draw confirmations and any withdrawal announcements through the ATP's ITF portal, as player cancellations or schedule shifts can trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match is delayed beyond seven days without completion. Court conditions at the Monastir venue and any weather forecasts closer to the scheduled date may also influence match dynamics. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026 at 12:45 UTC, providing a narrow window for resolution post-match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Augusto Mateo Lucarelli" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$131 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $131 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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