Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Kazuki Nishiwaki and Taketo Takamisawa in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kazuki Nishiwaki' if Kazuki Nishiwaki advances against Taketo Takamisawa. This market will resolve to 'Taketo Takamisawa' if Taketo Takamisawa advances against Kazuki Nishiwaki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Kazuki Nishiwaki vs Taketo Takamisawa | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Kazuki Nishiwaki faces Taketo Takamisawa in an ITF Men's event at Karuizawa scheduled for 26 May 2026. The match is a qualifying or main-draw fixture on the ITF circuit, where both players compete regularly. The settlement window closes on 3 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date for completion. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in match completion or minimal liquidity depth at alternative price levels.
ITF matches at this tier carry historical completion rates exceeding 95%, with cancellations typically limited to weather disruptions or player injury withdrawals announced within 48 hours of play. Nishiwaki and Takamisawa are both active on the ITF circuit with established ranking histories, reducing the likelihood of late withdrawals. The Karuizawa venue operates during Japan's late-spring season with generally favourable conditions, though typhoon season approaches by late May. Comparable ITF events in the region show consistent scheduling adherence once tournaments commence.
Traders should monitor the ATP/WTA calendar for any conflicting commitments that might draw either player away, though ITF participants typically lack such scheduling conflicts. Tournament draw confirmations and any weather alerts from the Japan Meteorological Corporation in the week preceding 26 May will signal execution risk. The settlement mechanics require either a completed match or a formal cancellation; delays beyond 7 June trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk exposure for positions held through the window close.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Kazuki Nishiwaki vs Taketo Takamisawa" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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