Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Markus Molder and Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro in the ITF Men Monastir, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 12:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Markus Molder' if Markus Molder advances against Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro. This market will resolve to 'Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro' if Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro advances against Markus Molder. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Markus Molder vs Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Markus Molder, an Estonian player, faces Brazil's Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro in the ITF Men's Monastir tournament, scheduled for 27 May 2026. The match is a qualifying or main-draw fixture at this Tunisian clay-court event. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 100% implied probability for Molder's advancement, suggesting either significant backing for the Estonian or minimal liquidity at present price levels. This extreme probability typically indicates either strong conviction amongst early traders or sparse order-book depth at the current settlement odds.
ITF tournaments at this level feature considerable variance in outcomes, particularly when both players have limited recent match data or comparable recent results. Historical patterns show that clay-court ITF events in North Africa often see upsets driven by surface familiarity and travel logistics. Without recent ATP or ITF ranking movements for either player, the market's certainty warrants scrutiny—such extreme probabilities in lower-tier tennis matches frequently compress as more traders enter and additional information surfaces.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both players' participation and any late withdrawals before the scheduled start time. Weather delays are common in Monastir during late May, potentially triggering the seven-day rule that would resolve the market at 50-50. Traders should monitor ITF official announcements and any updates to player injury status in the days preceding the match, as these factors can shift sentiment substantially from the current consensus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Markus Molder vs Lucca Soares Guerra Maio Ribeiro" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$709 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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