Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Arina Malygina and Margaux Maquet in the ITF Women Oliva, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 4:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arina Malygina' if Arina Malygina advances against Margaux Maquet. This market will resolve to 'Margaux Maquet' if Margaux Maquet advances against Arina Malygina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Oliva: Arina Malygina vs Margaux Maquet | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Arina Malygina and Margaux Maquet are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's circuit event in Oliva on 28 May 2026. The match is set for 4:45 AM ET, with settlement occurring by 4 June 2026. On Polymarket's order book, the current crowd-implied probability stands at 0% for a Malygina victory, suggesting either extreme confidence in Maquet's chances or minimal liquidity at present pricing. The 0% reading typically reflects either no active bids on the Malygina side or a structural gap in the book rather than genuine certainty of outcome.
ITF Women's matches at this tier show considerable variance in upset frequency, particularly when seeding data and recent form diverge. Comparable lower-ranked ITF events see upsets in roughly 25–35% of matches involving players outside the top 100, depending on surface and recent tournament performance. Without current WTA rankings or recent head-to-head records readily available, traders should treat the 0% probability as a liquidity signal rather than a fundamental assessment. The early morning scheduling (4:45 AM ET) may suppress initial trading activity and price discovery.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both players' participation and any withdrawal announcements in the week preceding the match. Surface conditions in Oliva, recent ITF results for both competitors, and any late-draw changes could shift expectations. Traders should monitor ITF official draws and player social media for injury updates or schedule changes. The seven-day delay clause means matches postponed beyond 4 June without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk for positions held through that window.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Oliva: Arina Malygina vs Margaux Maquet" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$829 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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