Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Andre Lukosiute and Natalia Sousa Salazar in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andre Lukosiute' if Andre Lukosiute advances against Natalia Sousa Salazar. This market will resolve to 'Natalia Sousa Salazar' if Natalia Sousa Salazar advances against Andre Lukosiute. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Andre Lukosiute vs Natalia Sousa Salazar | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
André Lukosiute and Natalia Sousa Salazar are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir on 29 May 2026, with the match set for 05:00 ET. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty for one outcome. This extreme positioning typically emerges when one player is substantially favoured based on ranking differential, recent form, or head-to-head record, though the specific catalyst driving unanimous conviction warrants examination.
Lukosiute, a Lithuanian player, and Sousa Salazar, competing from Brazil, operate within ITF circuits where ranking gaps often translate to decisive matchups. Historical ITF Women's matches show that when seeding or ranking disparities exceed two to three positions, favourites convert at rates above 75%, though upsets remain material at lower professional levels. The current 100% reading suggests the market perceives a significant quality gap or has incorporated information about player availability and fitness that eliminates genuine uncertainty.
Traders should monitor the official ITF draw confirmation and any withdrawal announcements through late May, as schedule delays or player withdrawals would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Injury reports or late-stage ranking updates could shift the order book if they alter the perceived competitive balance. The settlement window closes 5 June 2026 at 09:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion; any postponement beyond 5 June without a result would also resolve the market at parity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Andre Lukosiute vs Natalia Sousa Salazar" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$388 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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