Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Noah Karma and Mili Poljicak in the ITF Men Bol, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Noah Karma' if Noah Karma advances against Mili Poljicak. This market will resolve to 'Mili Poljicak' if Mili Poljicak advances against Noah Karma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bol: Noah Karma vs Mili Poljicak | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Noah Karma and Mili Poljicak are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's tournament at Bol, Croatia on 28 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional event where both players will be seeking ranking points and match exposure. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero demand for either outcome, with the crowd-implied probability at 0% for Karma, reflecting either minimal liquidity or genuine uncertainty about whether the match will proceed as scheduled.
ITF tournaments at this level frequently experience fixture changes, withdrawals, and scheduling adjustments, particularly when players are managing injury recovery or competing across multiple events in the same window. Historical patterns suggest that matches with zero implied probability often reflect incomplete information rather than certainty about outcomes—traders may simply be waiting for confirmation of player participation or court assignments before committing capital. The settlement window extends to 4 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date to account for potential delays.
Traders monitoring this market should track official ITF and ATP communications regarding player entry lists and any injury announcements in the weeks preceding the event. Poljicak's recent tournament schedule and Karma's current ranking trajectory will signal commitment levels to this particular fixture. Weather disruptions at the Bol venue and broader European tour scheduling could also trigger postponements. Until liquidity emerges on the order book, the 0% reading should be interpreted as absence of trading activity rather than a meaningful probability assessment.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bol: Noah Karma vs Mili Poljicak" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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