Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Jamshidi and Jade Otway in the ITF Women Gaborone, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elena Jamshidi' if Elena Jamshidi advances against Jade Otway. This market will resolve to 'Jade Otway' if Jade Otway advances against Elena Jamshidi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Gaborone: Elena Jamshidi vs Jade Otway | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Elena Jamshidi and Jade Otway are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament in Gaborone on 14 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture within the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players are developing their ranking points and match experience. The 50-50 implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty; neither player commands a clear statistical edge based on recent form or head-to-head record at this level of competition.
ITF Women's matches at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where outcomes depend heavily on surface adaptation, recent tournament results, and momentum rather than established dominance. Comparable fixtures at Gaborone and similar African ITF venues have historically resolved along lines of recent match wins and clay-court experience, given the red-clay surface. The current split probability suggests traders are pricing in incomplete information about both players' preparation and current physical condition heading into May.
Traders should monitor ITF circuit results through late April and early May for both players' recent match outcomes and withdrawal patterns. Gaborone tournament draws and seeding announcements, typically released one week before competition, will clarify the bracket context and any scheduling adjustments. Weather disruptions are a material risk given the African venue; the settlement window extends to 21 May to account for potential delays beyond the original 14 May date. Any withdrawal or injury announcement would trigger immediate repricing on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Gaborone: Elena Jamshidi vs Jade Otway" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $491 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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