Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Madelief Hageman and Mariia Masiianskaia in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Madelief Hageman' if Madelief Hageman advances against Mariia Masiianskaia. This market will resolve to 'Mariia Masiianskaia' if Mariia Masiianskaia advances against Madelief Hageman. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Mariia Masiianskaia | 77% YES | 24% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Madelief Hageman faces Mariia Masiianskaia in a Women's ITF match at Kursumlijska Banja, Serbia, scheduled for 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for Hageman's advancement, suggesting the market views her as a clear favourite in this encounter. This probability has formed through trading activity on the platform's order book, where participants have priced in their assessments of both players' relative strength and match conditions.
Hageman, a Dutch player, and Masiianskaia, a Ukrainian competitor, operate within the ITF circuit where ranking points and tournament outcomes carry significance for players developing their professional records. Historical ITF matchups at this venue and between similarly ranked players typically show favourites at this probability level converting roughly 75–80% of the time, though individual player form, surface preference, and recent match fitness create meaningful variance. The Serbian clay court surface at Kursumlijska Banja favours certain playing styles; traders should assess whether either player has documented clay-court strength or weakness.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled, any last-minute withdrawals or injuries announced before 3 June, and weather conditions in the days preceding play. The settlement window extends to 10 June, providing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches. Traders should monitor ITF official announcements and player social media for fitness updates, as lower-ranked players on the ITF circuit occasionally withdraw due to injury or scheduling conflicts closer to event dates.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Mariia Masiianskaia" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $26 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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