Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Yanki Erel and Ids Waterbolk in the ITF Men Kutaisi, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yanki Erel' if Yanki Erel advances against Ids Waterbolk. This market will resolve to 'Ids Waterbolk' if Ids Waterbolk advances against Yanki Erel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kutaisi: Yanki Erel vs Ids Waterbolk | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Yanki Erel faces Ids Waterbolk in an ITF Men's tournament match scheduled for 26 May 2026 at 2:00 AM ET in Kutaisis, Georgia. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Erel's advancement, suggesting the market has priced in either substantial confidence in his form relative to Waterbolk or limited liquidity at current levels. Settlement occurs by 2 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion before the market resolves to a 50-50 split should the match remain unplayed.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in player availability and match completion rates. Lower-ranked players on the ITF tour experience higher withdrawal and retirement rates than ATP-level competitors, with scheduling disruptions common in Eastern European venues. Historical precedent suggests markets pricing single outcomes at extreme probabilities often reflect information asymmetries rather than true certainty—either one player's withdrawal has been announced or the market lacks sufficient backing to move prices toward equilibrium.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament draws and player entry lists through the official ITF website through late May, as withdrawals often occur within 48 hours of scheduled matches. Weather conditions in Kutaisis during late May and any player injury announcements represent primary catalysts. The early morning start time (2:00 AM ET) may also affect liquidity and information flow for Western-based traders, potentially explaining the extreme probability if the match has already been contested or cancelled in real time before wider market awareness.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kutaisi: Yanki Erel vs Ids Waterbolk" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$137 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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