Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Ognjen Milic in the Bengaluru 2, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Ognjen Milic. This market will resolve to 'Ognjen Milic' if Ognjen Milic advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Match O/U 21.5 | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Set 1 Winner | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% YES | 67% NO |
Keegan Smith and Ognjen Milic are scheduled to meet in the second edition of the Bengaluru ATP tournament on 14 May 2026. The match represents a relatively early-round encounter in what is typically a lower-tier ATP event, with both players competing for ranking points and tournament progression. The settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for scheduling adjustments or delays beyond the original 1:30 AM ET start time.
The current 53% implied probability for Smith reflects modest confidence in his advancement, suggesting near-parity in market expectations. This probability is being formed through Polymarket's order book, where traders are pricing in both players' recent form, head-to-head record if applicable, and surface-specific performance data. Smith's slight edge may reflect recent ranking movements or tournament seeding, though the narrow margin indicates meaningful uncertainty. Comparable lower-tier ATP matches typically see probabilities cluster around 50–55% for the higher-ranked player, depending on recent results and injury status.
Traders should monitor ATP official announcements regarding player withdrawals, which remain common at secondary tournaments, and any late schedule changes that could affect preparation or fatigue levels. Weather conditions in Bengaluru during May can influence match duration and player performance. The resolution criteria specify that matches abandoned after commencement but unfinished will resolve based on advancement status, whilst cancellations or delays beyond seven days trigger a 50–50 split, creating distinct risk scenarios for position holders.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$853 in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $853 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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