Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Ilya Ivashka in the Bengaluru 2, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Ilya Ivashka. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 21.5 | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 Winner | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 22.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Keegan Smith and Ilya Ivashka are scheduled to meet in the Bengaluru 2 tournament on 15 May 2026 at 05:30 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a near-even split at 49% implied probability for Smith's advancement, suggesting traders view this as a competitive matchup with marginal conviction either direction. Settlement occurs on 22 May, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved outcome beyond that window triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Smith, an American ranked outside the ATP top 100, has shown inconsistent results on the ATP Challenger circuit, whilst Ivashka, a Belarusian with prior ATP ranking experience, typically competes at a higher level. Historical precedent suggests that when two players of disparate career trajectories meet at secondary-tier events, the higher-ranked or more established player often advances, though surface conditions and recent form can shift outcomes materially. The Bengaluru hard court surface favours baseline consistency, a strength for Ivashka's game.
Traders should monitor official ATP and tournament communications for any scheduling changes, injury withdrawals, or weather delays affecting the 15 May date. Ivashka's recent match results and any late-tournament withdrawals from higher-ranked players that might affect draw composition could shift market sentiment. The settlement window's seven-day buffer provides reasonable protection against minor delays, though fixture congestion during the spring hard-court season occasionally produces postponements worth tracking.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$81 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $81 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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