Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel Cerundolo' if Juan Manuel Cerundolo advances against Jannik Sinner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 51%, making this a coinflip market with 8 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $99K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 40.5 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 36.5 | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 38.5 | 31% YES | 69% NO |
Jannik Sinner faces Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Roland Garros men's draw, with the match originally scheduled for 28 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for Sinner's advancement, suggesting near-parity between the two outcomes despite Sinner's superior ranking and recent form.
Sinner enters as the clear favourite in head-to-head records and surface credentials. The Italian has won three ATP titles on clay in 2024–2025 and reached the Australian Open final, whilst Cerundolo, an Argentine left-hander, competes primarily on the ATP 250 circuit. Historical matchups between top-10 players and lower-ranked opponents at Grand Slams typically see the seeded player advance 75–80% of the time, making the 51% reading unusually tight. This suggests either meaningful uncertainty about Sinner's fitness or form at Roland Garros, or significant backing for an upset scenario.
Traders should monitor Sinner's performance in lead-up tournaments through May, particularly any injury reports or withdrawal patterns. Cerundolo's recent ATP results and clay-court record will indicate whether he has developed the consistency to trouble elite opposition. Weather conditions at Roland Garros—particularly court speed and humidity—can favour aggressive left-handers, a factor that may be pricing into the current probability. The settlement window closes 4 June 2026, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion, which provides buffer for weather delays common at the Paris clay event.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 4 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($99K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$68K in lifetime turnover and $99K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $68K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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