Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Andres Andrade in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Andres Andrade. This market will resolve to 'Andres Andrade' if Andres Andrade advances against Thiago Monteiro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Match O/U 21.5 | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% YES | 24% NO |
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Set 1 Winner | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Match O/U 22.5 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Thiago Monteiro and Andres Andrade are scheduled to meet in a Zagreb ATP Challenger match on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Monteiro's advancement at 57%, reflecting modest confidence in the Brazilian over his Colombian opponent. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity rather than a fixed model, meaning the spread between bid and ask prices directly encodes market participants' assessment of the matchup.
Monteiro, ranked in the 200s on the ATP Tour, has competed regularly on the Challenger circuit with mixed results across clay and hard courts. Andrade operates at a similar competitive level, with both players capable of reaching Challenger finals but neither commanding consistent deep runs. Historical head-to-head records between players at this tier often show minimal predictive power; surface preference, recent form, and tournament-specific conditions typically dominate outcomes. The 57% probability suggests the market views Monteiro as a slight favourite, though the gap to even odds indicates genuine uncertainty about the encounter.
Key variables for traders include confirmation of both players' participation closer to the event date, any late withdrawals or injury announcements, and the specific court surface assignment in Zagreb. ATP Challenger draws are finalised approximately one week before competition begins. Weather conditions in mid-May can affect play scheduling, potentially triggering the seven-day delay clause that would resolve the market to 50-50. Monitor official ATP and tournament communications for any fixture changes or player status updates through the settlement window closing on 19 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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