Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mert Alkaya and Arda Azkara in the Centurion 2, originally scheduled for June 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mert Alkaya' if Mert Alkaya advances against Arda Azkara. This market will resolve to 'Arda Azkara' if Arda Azkara advances against Mert Alkaya. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Set 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Match O/U 22.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Mert Alkaya and Arda Azkara are scheduled to compete in the Centurion 2 tennis tournament on 1 June 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for Alkaya's advancement on Polymarket's order book, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a consensus view that the match carries substantial uncertainty. With settlement occurring by 8 June 2026, traders have a narrow window to assess both players' form and tournament positioning.
The 0% probability reading warrants scrutiny given that both players are relatively obscure on the professional circuit, making reliable historical head-to-head data sparse. Comparable lower-tier professional matches on Polymarket typically show wider probability ranges when liquidity is thin, suggesting the current extreme reading may reflect limited order book depth rather than confident market consensus. Turkish players competing in secondary tournaments often face scheduling volatility and withdrawal patterns that can shift odds substantially once draw confirmations arrive.
Key catalysts include official Centurion 2 draw confirmation, any injury announcements in the days preceding the match, and weather conditions affecting the 4:00 AM ET slot. Traders should monitor ATP Challenger circuit standings and recent tournament results for both players, as form fluctuations at this level can be pronounced. The settlement window's seven-day grace period means delays or retirements mid-match will trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating additional risk for those betting on either player's advancement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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