Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| OpenAI | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| DeepSeek | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| xAI | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Anthropic | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Meta | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Mistral | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Alibaba | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Nvidia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranks large language models through comparative user voting, with the Arena Score metric determining which company holds the top position. A 14% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism that any listed company will achieve the #1 ranking at any point through June 2026. This valuation suggests the market expects either continued dominance by an incumbent leader or fragmented performance across competitors, with traders pricing in the difficulty of displacing whichever model currently leads.
Historical context shows the leaderboard has experienced notable shifts. OpenAI's GPT-4 held early dominance, but Claude 3.5 Sonnet from Anthropic reached the top position in September 2024, demonstrating that leadership changes occur but remain infrequent. The 18-month settlement window provides ample time for model releases and iterations, yet the low probability reflects the entrenched position of leading systems and the technical barriers to achieving measurable superiority in arena voting patterns.
Key catalysts include scheduled model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, with announcements typically driving immediate leaderboard testing. Recent developments in reasoning-focused models and multimodal capabilities have shaped competitive positioning. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings calls and research announcements for deployment timelines, as new model releases directly feed into arena evaluations. The leaderboard's real-time voting mechanism means ranking changes can occur rapidly following major releases, creating discrete decision points for position adjustments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.6M in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $456 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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