Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York City | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Miami | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Dallas | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| Detroit | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Washington DC | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Nashville | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Denver | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Las Vegas | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Waymo's expansion into new cities for its driverless ride-hailing service represents a significant milestone in autonomous vehicle commercialisation. The market is pricing a 7% probability that Waymo will launch public service in at least one additional city beyond its current operations by 30 June 2026. This implies substantial scepticism about the company's near-term geographic growth, despite its established presence in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles.
Historical precedent suggests caution is warranted. Waymo's expansion has been methodical rather than rapid—it took roughly five years from its 2018 Phoenix pilot to meaningful public availability in multiple markets. Competitors including Cruise (now paused) and traditional ride-hailing operators have faced regulatory delays and technical setbacks when scaling to new jurisdictions. Each new city requires separate regulatory approval, local infrastructure assessment, and operational testing, creating compounding timelines that frequently exceed initial projections.
The critical catalysts through mid-2026 centre on regulatory milestones and Waymo's stated roadmap. The company has indicated interest in cities including Austin, Atlanta, and Miami, but concrete timelines remain absent. Recent reporting from Reuters in late 2024 highlighted ongoing challenges with California's autonomous vehicle regulations and insurance frameworks. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings calls for specific launch announcements, regulatory filings in target cities, and any shifts in Waymo's capital allocation priorities. The 18-month settlement window leaves limited runway for the operational and approval processes typically required for a new market entry.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which cities will Waymo launch in by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$234K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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