Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the package counter in the specified livestream displays a figure equal to or higher than the specified figure at any point prior to the 8:00:00 time mark. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the 8-hour period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 10,000+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 11,000+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 12,000+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 10,500+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 10,250+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Figure AI conducted an eight-hour livestream demonstration of its F.03 humanoid robots performing autonomous package sorting tasks on a conveyor system. The market resolves affirmatively if the package counter visible in the broadcast reaches a specified threshold at any point before the eight-hour mark concludes. The livestream link is publicly available, making the resolution criteria directly verifiable from recorded footage. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the threshold as either already achieved during the broadcast or virtually certain to have been met.
Humanoid robotics demonstrations have historically faced scrutiny regarding real-world performance claims versus controlled conditions. Boston Dynamics' public showcases and Tesla's Optimus presentations have established precedent for markets pricing in execution risk, though outcomes vary considerably depending on task complexity and duration. The specificity of this market—tied to a recorded livestream with a visible counter—reduces ambiguity compared to forward-looking robotics milestones, which typically command lower probabilities due to timeline and technical uncertainties.
The settlement window extends to May 2026, providing ample time for resolution verification. Key dependencies include the livestream's availability and integrity; the market documentation notes provisions for continuation footage should technical interruptions occur. Figure's recent funding announcements and manufacturing partnerships, covered extensively in robotics trade publications, have reinforced investor confidence in the company's near-term deployment capabilities. Traders should monitor whether Figure releases supplementary performance data or technical specifications that might clarify the baseline expectations embedded in current pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "# of Packages Pushed by Figure's F.03 Robot in 8 Hours?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$48K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $48K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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